To Crimea as the cornerstone of this war is devoted the article of the former lieutenant colonel of the US Army, ex-director for European affairs of the National Security Council, and professor at the Harvard Kennedy School Alexander Vindman in Foreign Affairs. The annexation of Crimea is symbolic for Putin — after all, this act of the Russian dictator received the most approval from Russians during the entire period of his rule. Crimea is also important for Ukraine, because without the liberation of the peninsula it will not be possible to talk about restoring the integrity of the Ukrainian territory. And if at the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russians, the Ukrainian authorities were still ready to discuss the Crimean issue diplomatically — then it was presented as a compromise for the sake of peace — now, after several successful Ukrainian counteroffensives, the issue of returning the peninsula by military means dominates among the Ukrainian leadership. For example, speaking before the participants of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the fact that Crimea is Ukrainian territory. Indeed, writes Vindman, now the military reconquest of the peninsula by the Armed Forces of Ukraine seems quite likely.
Ex-military describes exactly how this can happen. First, the Ukrainian military broke through the corridor to the sea in the Zaporizhzhia region, simultaneously destroying the Crimean Bridge. This significantly worsens the logistics of the occupiers: the Russians will be able to supply their contingent in Crimea and southern Ukraine only by sea, but this wonʼt cover the needs of the army. Next, after expelling the Russians from the south of the Kherson region, the Ukrainians will try to gain a foothold in the north of Crimea. This will happen in parallel with strikes on Russian military bases, warehouses, and logistics hubs. However, to liberate the territory, the defense of which the Russians have been strengthening for years, a considerable ground contingent will be needed. However, the author warns that the concentration of significant human resources in the south of the Kherson region and the north of Crimea, as well as significant political risks for the Russian leadership in the event of the loss of Crimea, will make Putinʼs use of tactical nuclear weapons likely. He calls the ground operation in Crimea one of the most difficult moments of the war.
However, according to Vindman, the symbolic importance of Crimea for Putin and his entourage can become a convenient lever for Ukraine. If Kyiv receives enough weapons to drive the Russians out of Crimea, and if the Ukrainian Armed Forces conduct several successful offensive operations, this will be enough for Ukraine to have a sufficiently favorable position in future peace negotiations. The risk of losing the peninsula will push Russia to significant compromises. Among them may be, for example, holding an honest referendum among the population of Crimea — including those who left the peninsula after its occupation — regarding the future fate of the region. Vindman believes that this referendum can remove the need for Ukraine to seize Crimea by military means.
The main proposal of the former military man is to provide Ukraine with the maximum amount of weapons it is asking for. Kyiv has demonstrated more than once that it keeps its promises not to use weapons provided by its partners on the territory of the Russian Federation. However, in order to win back their land, the Ukrainian Armed Forces use everything provided more than effectively. So both aircraft and ATACMS and long-range missiles for HIMARS will only hasten the end of the war. Otherwise, the world will have to watch heavy battles and significant losses of both Ukrainians and Russians for at least half a year.
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