The publication Naval News analyzes the recent attack of Russian ships by Ukrainian surface drones in Sevastopol Bay. The text shows no sympathy for the Ukrainian side in the war, yet the verdict on the Russian fleet is disappointing. Its leadership is not able to draw conclusions from previous defeats, the consequence of which is the damage to the second flagship of the fleet within six months. In the world of naval forces, this is a disgrace. At the same time, a Ukrainian surface drone was spotted near the bay a few weeks ago. Navy could prepare: install guided missiles in the bay, surround their large ships with maneuvering boats that could absorb part of the blow. All the Russians tried to do was destroy floating drones from helicopters. However, it is a difficult target for an air attack. In the modern fleet, real sea battles are a rarity. Sometimes, military leaders donʼt participate in any real combat during their entire careers. They can go through as much training as they want, but actual combat experience is goldworthy. How the Ukrainians with weaker land and air forces, with a virtually non-existent fleet, disabled the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation will be studied in military academies in the same way as the Falklands operation, the publication writes. For the world military, the last few days have shown that large ships can be seriously damaged by swarms of small drones, so more and more efforts must be directed to protect against them. As for Russia, the conclusion is that even the bases of its Navy are no longer safe for its ships.
The percentage of Britons who are ready to make economic concessions to Putin in the event of a further rise in energy prices is becoming larger. This is evidenced by the results of a poll conducted by the British TV channel Sky News. The number of British people who believe that it is necessary to help Ukraine with weapons and train our soldiers is still the majority. Sanctions are still supported by about 70% of surveyed British residents ― against 78% in March. However, only 41% will support them if prices continue to rise. Economists call the processes in the British economy in recent months the cost-of-living crisis. Despite the fact that only 9% of the gas consumed by the country was of Russian origin before the war, the global increase in fuel prices led to inflation in this country as well. All this shows, the journalists conclude, that the spectrum of opportunities for Britainʼs support of Ukraine is gradually narrowing.
The US and the Western world in general should already be looking for end-of-war scenarios, believes Emma Ashford, a professor at Georgetown University and a senior researcher at the Stimson Center. In a lengthy article on Foreign Affairs, she argues that because the West provides Ukraine with weapons and money, it has a say in the conflict. And it is necessary to voice oneʼs position, because the West is also suffering in this war ― both because of the rise in prices in its own markets, and because of the planetʼs environmental problems, and because of the risk of a nuclear attack. “Almost all wars end with negotiations. No, now is not the time to incline Ukraine to them. However, it is worth preparing the ground for them by broadcasting their position through, for example, the terms of supplying weapons to Kyiv,” Ashford writes. What can be the position of the West and, in particular, Washington? The researcher believes that Kyiv should still cede part of the territories occupied by Russia after 2014. For example, Russiaʼs formal recognition of control over Crimea may become a way for Putin to “save face” to end the increasingly problematic war for him. Ukraine can develop more dynamically and defend itself more effectively without a part of the territories, where there is a lot of pro-Russian population, thinks Ashford. She believes that there can be three good situations for starting negotiations. The first is if Ukraineʼs military successes are so significant that there is a threat of Russia losing Crimea. The peninsula is so symbolically important for Russia that an attack on it could become a trigger for Putin to use nuclear weapons, Ashford convinced. The second situation when it is worth sitting down at the negotiating table is if Russia goes on a successful counteroffensive and passes beyond the borders of Donbas in the east. And the third option is a long trench war with no clear prospects for either side. At the same time, it is important not to remove sanctions from Russia that would allow the development of its military-industrial complex, so that it could not create the same problems for the world as it does now.