Russia is not currently interested in a direct attack on Europe, but is preparing for a long-term confrontation and is considering scenarios of military conflicts with NATO countries until 2045.
This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS) of Ukraine.
FIS notes that Putinʼs statements that Russia is not going to attack Europe are accompanied by threats to use all types of weapons, including nuclear ones, in the event of an "attack on Russia".
The intelligence community considers such rhetoric to be part of a campaign of intimidation aimed at weakening military support for Ukraine and deterring European countries from strengthening their own defenses.
According to FIS, currently Moscow is trying to act in a way that does not provoke a direct NATO response. To do this, Russia uses sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, influence operations, espionage, and violation of airspace by drones.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, almost 400 Russian special services employees are currently in Europe.
At the same time, Russia does not rule out direct military confrontation with European countries in the future — until 2045. In particular, Moscow is working on plans for military action against Poland, the countries of Northern Europe, and the Baltics.
One possible option is what intelligence agencies call a “controlled crisis” on NATO’s eastern flank. Its goal may not be a military victory over the Alliance, but rather a situation in which NATO countries will have to make quick decisions under conditions of uncertainty. In this way, Moscow may try to question the Alliance’s ability to promptly protect its members.
FIS emphasizes that the Ukrainian and European directions of Russian policy are interconnected, and Moscowʼs main goal remains to weaken the unity of Europe and its security system.
"Strengthening our own defense capabilities, reducing energy dependence, consistent economic pressure on Russia, and most importantly, supporting Ukraine, are not separate political decisions, but elements of one major strategy to deter a common enemy," FIS emphasized.
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