Since the end of the Cold War, the global nuclear arsenal has been gradually shrinking each year. However, this trend is likely to change in the near future: the pace of dismantling warheads is slowing down, and the deployment of new ones is accelerating.
This is stated in a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Almost all nine nuclear powers — the United States, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel — continued to upgrade their existing weapons and add new versions in 2024.
Of the global arsenal, estimated at 12 241 warheads in January 2025, nearly 9 614 were potentially ready for use. About 3 912 of these were deployed on missiles or aircraft, with the remainder stored in storage. About 2 100 of the deployed warheads were maintained at high alert on ballistic missiles. Almost all of these warheads belonged to Moscow or Washington, although SIPRI suggests that China also places some warheads on missiles even in peacetime.
“The era of reducing the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which has lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end. Instead, we see a clear trend towards growing nuclear arsenals, intensifying nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements,” says Hans Christensen, Senior Researcher in the SIPRI Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme.
The United States and Russia hold nearly 90% of the worldʼs nuclear weapons. If a new agreement on limiting arsenals cannot be reached, the number of warheads could increase after the bilateral Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) expires in February 2026.
The Kremlin will increase its nuclear weapons deployment, likely through the modernization of its strategic forces, which will allow it to carry more warheads on a single missile. It may also load empty decommissioned mines. And Washington, experts predict, will add warheads to existing launchers, reactivate empty launch systems, and add new non-strategic nuclear weapons to its arsenal.
According to SIPRI, renewed discussions in East Asia, Europe and the Middle East about nuclear status and strategy indicate that more states may begin developing their own nuclear weapons.
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