Among the various options for security guarantees, Ukrainians most — 54% of those surveyed — support the idea of increased armed support for Ukraine, that is, sufficient saturation of the Defense Forces with weapons.
This is evidenced by a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology
(KIIS), conducted on February 14 — March 4.
KIIS has formed five dimensions-components of the "packages" of agreements: security guarantees; EU membership; control over territories; language policy; and sovereignty of Ukraine.
For each dimension, there were 2-4 options-levels (for example, for EU membership — Ukraine refuses to join the EU or, conversely, Ukraine becomes an EU member). For each dimension, the respondent was randomly selected one level and this was read together as a possible package of peace agreements. So, Ukrainians answered whether this package could be acceptable or whether it was categorically unacceptable.
Security guarantees. If the package includes a complete refusal to join NATO and without peacekeepers and additional weapons, then there will be parity — 44% can generally accept the package against 44% who are categorically against it. At the same time, even these 44% who can generally accept a refusal from NATO and the absence of peacekeepers/weapons are achieved only by presenting certain positive points in a number of packages, such as EU membership or the return of certain territories to Ukrainian control (because some of the packages that included such a refusal also included EU membership and/or the return of territories).
If the package includes certain security guarantees, then there will be more people who are ready to approve it. Moreover, the scenario with the greatest support will not even be NATO membership, but enhanced military support for Ukraine. For example, if NATO membership is postponed for 10-20 years, but Ukraine receives all weapons in large quantities (aircraft, aircraft, tanks, etc.), 54% are ready to accept the package, and 35% are categorically against it.
The NATO membership package is approved by 49% of respondents (38% categorically against), and the peacekeeping package is approved by 47% (43% categorically against).
Sociologists also studied the answers about joining the EU. In the case of EU membership as part of the peace agreements, 55% are ready to support the package, compared to 34% who would be categorically against it.
If the package includes the return of control over the territories, then it becomes much more attractive. For example, if Russia retains control over all occupied territories, 38% are ready to accept such a package, compared to 51% who are categorically against it. If the package includes the return of southern Ukraine, then its attractiveness will increase to 50% (categorically against — 38%), and if it includes the return of the entire territory with Donbas and Crimea — 57% (categorically against — 30%).
The requirement to grant the Russian language state status significantly worsens the perception of the package: in this case, 41% may support it overall, compared to 48% who would be categorically against it. If the Ukrainian language retains a single state and official status, then 55% would support such a package, while 32% would be categorically against it.
Among all dimensions, the preservation of sovereignty in decision-making has the greatest impact. If the package includes a requirement for Ukraine to coordinate all important decisions with Russia, then 37% are ready to accept it, while 50% are categorically against it. If Ukraine can make any decisions without control from Russia, then 59% will support the package, while 30% will be categorically against it.
"The majority of Ukrainians are against ʼpeace on any terms.ʼ That is, although Ukrainians are open to negotiations and painful concessions, there are certainly red lines, and they will reject unacceptable options. The will of the Ukrainian nation to resist is not broken, and despite all the difficulties, Ukrainians are ready to continue the struggle," said Anton Hrushetsky, director of KIIS, following the results of the survey.
- The survey was conducted using telephone interviews based on a random sample of mobile numbers. 1 029 respondents aged 18 and over living in all unoccupied regions of Ukraine were surveyed. The survey was not conducted among citizens who left abroad after February 24, 2022. Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of a sample of 1 029 respondents does not exceed 4.1%.
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