Last month, at a Washington forum, Chinese economist Gao Shangwen said that China’s economy may have grown by 2%, while the official government says it’s 5%. This angered Chinese President Xi Jinping, who banned the economist from speaking publicly.
This is reported by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing sources.
“We don’t know the real growth rate of China. My own thinking is that over the past two to three years, the real [gross domestic product growth] may have averaged around 2%, although the official figure is around 5%,” Gao said at a December 12 forum, a webcast of which is available on the Peterson Institute website and YouTube.
At the same time, he questioned Beijingʼs ability to take the necessary steps to strengthen economic growth.
"Their efforts to stimulate the economy will be very opportunistic
He believes that "it would be more reasonable" to expect growth rates of 3% to 4% in the coming years, over the next three to five years.
"But we know that the official figure will always be around 5%," Gao said.
In a statement, the Peterson Institute said it valued the frank exchanges with Chinese experts and believed that evidence-based, analytical, expert discussions were important, contributing to “mutual understanding and better public policy.” It said it would continue to work with Chinese scholars.
First, the Chinese leader ordered an investigation into Gao Shangwen, the chief economist at state-owned SDIC Securities, who often advised the government on economic and financial policy. Then, Xi Jinping ordered authorities to “discipline” him.
He is currently banned from speaking publicly for an indefinite period. For now, he has been allowed to remain in his position.
Thus, an event at Chinaʼs Nankai University, which was supposed to take place on January 11 with the participation of Gao, was canceled.
The website promoting the event and messages sent to attendees said the event was canceled due to “the personal schedule of the guest of honor, Mr. Gao Shangwen”.
What preceded
Beijing is trying to quell concerns that China is sinking into a prolonged recession, the WSJ reports. In recent months, the authorities have sought to stamp out any negative talk about the state of the economy.
In his New Year’s speech on December 31, Xi sought to boost confidence in China’s economy, saying it was “on an upward trajectory”. The WSJ notes that he allegedly acknowledged concerns about a potential trade war with the Trump administration but vowed that China would overcome challenges posed “from outside.”
Doubts about the reliability of Chinese statistics have grown in recent years as authorities have restricted access to and stopped publishing certain data — such as data on foreign investor interest in Chinese stocks. The government also stopped showing youth unemployment figures at the end of 2023.
Barclays economists wrote to clients in October that they noticed discrepancies between the sudden improvement in Chinaʼs third-quarter economic activity data and the countryʼs weakening economic indicators, in particular, it said that wages, exports and the purchasing managersʼ index had increased.
- Last year, Zhu Hengpeng, an economist at one of China’s leading think tanks, was under investigation. He was detained and suspended from his post for allegedly posting in a private chat room criticizing Xi’s handling of the economy. His remarks included veiled insinuations about the Chinese leader’s mortality.
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