Moldova plans to reintegrate the unrecognized Transnistria by 2038, using the model of German unification.
The corresponding plan was published by El Pais on July 29.
Journalists got access to the plan, which was allegedly developed by a consulting company on behalf of the government of Moldova.
The article states that Russiaʼs full-scale invasion of Ukraine indirectly created unique conditions that Moldova intends to use for the reintegration of Transnistria.
To implement the reintegration plan, the Moldovan authorities meet with the authorities of Transnistria from time to time, although the negotiations are currently at a very early stage and are conducted discreetly, writes El Pais.
The plan envisages a referendum and the withdrawal of Russian troops, and Tiraspol itself should demand their withdrawal. In general, the document contains three stages.
The first stage. According to El Pais, already this year Moldova will take concrete steps in the field of reintegration: it will try to agree with Transnistria on the training of judges, prosecutors and lawyers for the region. And then it will provide the residents of Transnistria with temporary price compensation for the increase in the price of gas, which will be sold to the region at the market price (now Moscow supplies it free of charge).
An agreement on political status between the two sides and the resolution of other "technical" issues are also expected.
In 2026, it is planned to combine the records of the administrations and conduct a general census of the population of the region, which is currently estimated at half a million people. In a year, the project will enter a delicate phase, when it will be possible to organize a referendum on reintegration, the disbandment of the current Transnistrian security forces, in particular the withdrawal of Russian troops, and the deployment of an international mission. According to the plan, the cost of this stage will exceed €550 million.
The second stage. Between 2028 and 2031, the abolition of the Transnistrian ruble and the introduction of the national currency, the Moldovan lei, as well as financial unification, will be considered. They also plan to implement a program to help small and medium-sized businesses, support regional institutions with state funding, and reform the pension system by establishing a minimum pension on both sides of the Dniester.
At the same time, the Transnistrian Armed Forces and ammunition warehouses will be liquidated. They will also try to open the region to foreign investments. Over these four years, payments from the state treasury will exceed €1.6 billion.
The third stage. Over the next seven years — from 2031 to 2038 — the Moldovan authorities plan to consolidate all measures to fully restore control over the region. The cost of the plan will increase by another €2 billion.
What they say in Chisinau
The Spanish newspaper claims that they managed to get a comment from the Moldovan Bureau of Reintegration Policy. They said that Chisinauʼs tactics are focused on gradual and sectoral reintegration. In this regard, "a number of economic and social laws are being revised to adapt to the new situation in the war in Ukraine," and some of these laws may have an "avalanche effect" that "does not satisfy" the other bank of the Dniester.
Former Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Aleksandr Flenkya told the Moldovan newspaper News Maker that he had read the El Pais article.
He says that work on a reintegration strategy is ongoing in Chisinau, but some developments do not correspond to what El Pais writes. He also doubts that the Moldovan officials referred to by the authors of the article really told them what was written there.
What is happening in Transnistria
Transnistria is an administrative unit within Moldova that has the status of autonomy. Back in 1990, PMR declared sovereignty over this territory. In connection with this, an armed conflict began between Moldova and the self-proclaimed republic. In the summer of 1992, hostilities ended.
In the mid-1990s, a contingent of Russian peacekeeping forces was introduced into Transnistria. The political conflict has not been settled yet. The world community does not recognize the independence of Transnistria.
In 2022, after the start of Russiaʼs full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe recognized Transnistria as territory occupied by Russia.