The Belarusian opposition has handed over a report to Ukraine on Lukashenkoʼs preparations for war. Hereʼs what it says

The Belarusian opposition believes that self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenko is preparing for direct participation in the war against Ukraine. A corresponding report has already been submitted to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha.

This is stated in the address of the Joint Transitional Committee of Belarus.

The Deputy Head of the Defense Industry Committee Pavlo Latushko handed over to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine a detailed report on how Lukashenko is systematically preparing Belarus for war.

In this report, the Belarusians identified eight main signs that the Lukashenko regime is actively preparing for direct entry into war. Here they are:

Legalization of "preventive strikes".

As the oppositionists emphasize, the Belarusian authorities have made key changes to the legislation in the military sphere. These include, in particular, amendments to the Constitution, due to which Belarus has ceased to be a neutral and nuclear-free country.

The new Military Doctrine, adopted in 2024, officially allows for preemptive strikes in the event of an "immediate threat" (which can even be interpreted as a concentration of troops near the borders or other threats to national security) and to send the Belarusian army abroad.

Large-scale deployment of forces.

The number of contract soldiers has increased 1.5 times since 2022, the mobilization reserve is estimated at 289 thousand people. In the Ukrainian direction, the Southern Operational Command is being created (the total number of troops may increase to over 80 000), and a "peopleʼs militia" is also being created (up to 150 000). Belarus is actively adopting the Russian experience: they introduced SMS summonses, allowed prisoners to be recruited into the army.

The transition of the economy to military rails.

In four years, defense spending has increased 5 times. The Belarusian military-industrial complex is fully integrated with the Russian one, a total secrecy regime has been introduced. In 2024 alone, more than 4 000 new units of military equipment were adopted.

Nuclear weapons and the PMC “Wagner”.

Integration with the Russian army has reached its peak: Russian troops are permanently stationed in Belarus, tactical nuclear weapons and the “Oreshnik” missile system are deployed. Belarusian military personnel are trained by the PMC “Wagner” instructors.

"Khrenina Line" and the militarization of children.

Defense lines are being built along the borders with Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania. Infrastructure (bridges, airfields) is being modernized for the movement of heavy Russian equipment.

Compulsory military training has been introduced in schools, and tens of thousands of children are to undergo special military-patriotic camps.

Mobilization of medicine and the civilian sector.

The Ministry of Health of Belarus has approved instructions for the strict triage of the wounded in wartime. In Minsk, an audit of 5 000 bomb shelters was conducted, warning systems are regularly tested, and bulletproof vests are being purchased for the needs of the militia at the district level.

Accumulation of strategic resources.

Mandatory reserves of petroleum products have been doubled — up to 30 days of storage. The Ministry of Defense has expanded the lists of civilian equipment that can be mobilized during martial law.

And according to the resolution of the Council of Ministers of May 15, 2026 No. 249, civilian transport of enterprises can be forcibly formed into military convoys.

Constant training.

In 2026, the regime continues the practice of large-scale continuous military exercises. This is used to covertly check mobilization lists and maintain a high level of psychological tension in society.

As emphasized in the Defense Industry Committee, the report submitted to the Ukrainian side contains not only a record of these trends, but also specific recommendations on how to prevent the worst-case scenario and restrain the aggressive ambitions of the Lukashenko regime.

Threat from Belarus

On April 17, Zelensky said that roads to Ukrainian territory and artillery positions were being built on the Belarusian border. On May 2, Zelensky said that Ukraine had “recorded quite specific activity” from Belarus on the border, but assured that everything was being recorded and monitored.

Already on May 15, the President of Ukraine reported that the Russians were continuing their attempts to drag Belarus into a war against Ukraine and were planning missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian "decision-making centers".

In particular, Russia is considering plans for operations in the directions south and north of Belarus, either in the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction or against one of the NATO countries. Zelensky instructed the military to strengthen the relevant direction and present a response plan.

On May 18, Belarus began joint nuclear weapons exercises with Russia. It later emerged that Russia had moved nuclear munitions to Belarus as part of these exercises.

Against this backdrop, SBU reported intensified checks in northern Ukraine. The military will check citizens and cars, as well as inspect the territory to prevent sabotage.

On June 16, the Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky reported that new UAV units would be formed on the border with Belarus in Ukraine amid the threat of an offensive.

Recall that at the beginning of Russiaʼs full-scale invasion in 2022, Russian troops entered the territory of Ukraine, including from the territory of Belarus. Missile strikes were also carried out from its territory on Ukrainian cities and villages.

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