WP: F-16 fighters will be in Ukraine in a few weeks, but unlikely to change the situation on the battlefield

Western F-16 fighters should arrive in Ukraine in a few weeks, but they are unlikely to immediately change the situation on the battlefield.

The Washington Post writes about this with reference to Western and Ukrainian officials.

Presumably, the planes will strengthen Ukraineʼs air defense. They will be used to shoot down aerial targets — missiles, drones and airplanes, but not for strikes on the ground forces of the Russian Federation and other objects near the front. This is due to the fact that Kyiv will receive few planes — and Russia has a lot of air defense equipment that can shoot them down.

According to WP, at least initially, the F-16s will not be brought close to the front lines, so it is not yet clear whether they will be able to deter Russian aircraft flying in from Russian airspace.

A Ukrainian Defense Ministry official told WP that Ukrainian F-16s will carry advanced AIM-120 medium-range air-to-air missiles, which are also used for ground-based NASAMS systems. However, according to him, now Ukraine does not have enough of these missiles, so they will have to be divided between the F-16 and NASAMS.

Protecting the F-16 on the ground will also be a difficult task, because Ukrainian airfields are located within a radius where Russian missiles can hit. To protect them, Ukraine uses camouflage and even parks model airplanes at airfields as bait.

A high-ranking Ukrainian military official told reporters that Russia is preparing for Ukraine to receive F-16s. At the end of last year, Russia launched several missiles with dummy warheads from S-400 installations in Dzhankoya, in occupied Crimea. According to him, the missiles reached the Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk, which is located at a distance of more than 320 kilometers. So maybe Moscow will try to use the S-400 to shoot down the F-16.

Officials refused to say exactly how many aircraft Ukraine will receive in 2024, but it will be no more than one squadron — that is, about 20 units. In addition, only six pilots will complete their training this summer, as the program has a limited number of seats.

American officials have previously stated that the F-16 is unlikely to give Ukraine a decisive advantage due to Russiaʼs powerful air defense. However, Ukrainian officials, writes WP, reply that F-16 fighter jets, like other equipment, are supplied by the West in too small a quantity and too late.

• In total, four countries agreed to transfer F-16 fighters to Ukraine: the Netherlands (42 aircraft, some of them training), Denmark (19 units), Belgium ( 30 F-16 fighters by 2028 ) and Norway, which announced the transfer on July 10, 2024 6 F-16 aircraft. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said at the same time that the first F-16 fighter jets from Denmark and the Netherlands are "already on their way" to Ukraine.
• Some of the F-16 fighter jets transferred to Ukraine by Western partners will be kept at foreign air bases so that they do not become a target for Russian troops.
• On July 9, 2024, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, said that Ukraine is very much waiting for F-16 fighters, but the number of these aircraft announced by the allies is not enough. At least 128 F-16s are needed to match the Russians, who use 300 aircraft every day in the war.