The head of the MDI Kyrylo Budanov: Currently, no intelligence information indicates an imminent threat from Belarus

Currently, no intelligence information indicates an imminent threat of a second invasion from the territory of Belarus. However, the long-term risks of this remain.

The head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov told about this in an interview with The New York Times.

So, according to him, the Russian troops are not lined up in assault formations, and there are not enough armored vehicles on the training grounds to stage an attack. Although the training camps for Russian soldiers are filled with newly mobilized people, they go to fight in Donbas after completing the training.

"It would be wrong to discount this possibility but also wrong to say we have any data confirming it exists," Budanov added.

Budanov also said that the Russian military tried to raise the alarm in the Ukrainian army by loading soldiers into trains heading for the Belarusian border with Ukraine. The Soviet Union used a similar tactic during the World War II, sending soldiers on futile train journeys to simulate attacks or retreats. In Belarus, one train loaded with Russian soldiers recently stopped in the south near the border with Ukraine and then returned with all the soldiers on board. Budanov called it a "carousel."

• The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi said that the Russians are training approximately 200 000 new soldiers, and that he has no doubt that they will try to go to Kyiv a second time. The Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov and the commander of the OC "South" also believe that Russia plans to launch another wave of offensive in February 2023. The commander of the United Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, said that the risk of an offensive by the occupying forces from the territory of Belarus is gradually increasing. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also noted that the Kremlinʼs actions indicate Russiaʼs plans to renew its attack on Ukraine, and the Russiansʼ calls for negotiations are an attempt to buy time for the preparation and regrouping of troops.
• On December 20, Russia began to transfer equipment and personnel that were on Belarusian training grounds closer to the border with Ukraine.