Politico: Trump may indeed attack Cuba because economic pressure has failed

The US President Donald Trump and his aides are increasingly frustrated that the pressure campaign on Cuba has failed to force the islandʼs leadership to agree to significant economic and political reforms, and are now taking the military option more seriously than before.

Politico reports this, citing sources familiar with the Trump administrationʼs discussions on Cuba.

"The mood has definitely changed. Initially, it was believed that Cubaʼs leadership was weak and that the combination of increased sanctions, effectively an oil blockade, and obvious US military victories in Venezuela and Iran would force the Cubans to make a deal. Now the situation with Iran has gone sideways, and the Cubans are proving to be much tougher than initially thought. So now military action is being considered as an option that was not there before," the media source said.

Last week, news emerged that the US was looking to indict former Cuban President Raul Castro, the 94-year-old brother of the late Cuban dictator Fidel Castro. This led to speculation that the US could launch a military operation to capture Castro, just as it did with Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in January.

However, Politico sources say the US military is considering a wider range of options than just capturing one or a few individuals. Actions could range from a single airstrike designed to intimidate the regime into making concessions to a ground invasion.

According to a US official and a person familiar with the discussions, US Southern Command has been “doing a series of planning exercises” in recent weeks, meaning it has begun developing plans for a potential military operation. However, no action is expected in the near future. The Pentagon has ample military resources in the region. One highly unlikely scenario is the use of Cuban exiles in any operation.

What is happening between Cuba and the USA?

In late January, the US President Donald Trump declared a national emergency over Cuba and threatened tariffs on countries that supply it with oil. Trump accused Cuba of cooperating with states hostile to the US, including Russia, China and Iran, and of supporting the Hamas and Hezbollah groups.

According to him, Cuba allows Russian and Chinese intelligence and military facilities to be located there, which monitor the US. Trump also said that the Cuban government violates human rights, persecutes the opposition, restricts freedom of speech and puts pressure on civil society.

The Cuban government responded by declaring that the United States posed a threat to the country and declared an international emergency. The blockade caused a complete collapse of Cubaʼs energy system, with a blackout on the island as the country ran out of fuel for its power plants.

The authorities were forced to cancel classes, limit the work of hospitals and transport. The crisis also sparked public protests, and airlines suspended flights to the island due to a shortage of jet fuel.

On March 6, Trump said that the Cuban government was “soon to fall” and that he wanted to make a deal with it. Trump also said that he intended to make US Secretary of State Marco Rubio his deputy in Cuba.

After Trumpʼs tariff order, neither Mexico nor Venezuela sent oil to Cuba, although they were previously the islandʼs main energy suppliers. As early as March 19, the FT reported that Russia had sent two tankers with oil and gas to Cuba, despite US restrictions. These were the first fuel deliveries to the island in three months. Trump himself said that he saw no problem in supplying Russian oil to Cuba.

On April 18, Axios, citing sources, wrote that a US State Department delegation visited Cuba on April 10, the first time since President Barack Obamaʼs visit to the island in 2016. The main issue of the negotiations then was the implementation of large-scale political and economic reforms, on which the American side insists.

On May 14, it became known that the island of Cuba had run out of diesel and fuel oil, which sparked protests in the capital Havana.

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