The US House of Representatives removed McCarthy from office. What does this mean for Ukraine?

The US House of Representatives removed Republican Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House of Representatives from January 7, 2023.

According to CNN, 216 congressmen voted in favor and 210 against. This is the first case in US history when members of the House of Representatives voted for the resignation of the speaker through the resolution mechanism.

The voting procedure was initiated by McCarthyʼs fellow party member, far-right Republican Matt Gates, a congressman from the state of Florida.

Congress discussed the day before whether President Joe Biden and McCarthy had entered into a secret agreement that could protect future financial aid to Ukraine. Some right-wing Republicans, supporters of Donald Trump, believe that Biden agreed to sign a temporary bill to avoid a shutdown that did not include aid to Ukraine, in exchange for McCarthy agreeing to hold a separate vote on that aid later.

Gates argued the issue of McCarthyʼs resignation precisely with this. McCarthy responded by rejecting claims of collusion with Democrats.

Later, an absolute majority of Democrats voted to fire McCarthy. They were joined by eight republicans from the extreme right wing.

What does this mean for Ukraine?

The US House of Representatives (the lower house of the US Congress), which together with the upper house (the US Senate) forms the US Parliament. It initiates and passes federal laws that must be approved by the Senate and the President, and has the exclusive right to initiate laws related to taxes, government spending, and impeachment. Its speaker, who traditionally represents the partyʼs majority, has de facto power over the House of Representatives and, in particular, his faction. He approves the agenda.

McCarthyʼs resignation revealed a split among Republicans, which leads to even greater uncertainty regarding future budget support for Ukraine. It is not yet clear how much this will affect aid, as McCarthyʼs successor is not yet known.

Republican Patrick McHenry of North Carolina will now lead the House of Representatives temporarily. He is McCarthyʼs main ally. However, the powers of the acting chairman are quite limited — he can announce a break in work, close the meeting and recognize candidates for the position of speaker.

Western media write that the Republicans will discuss the candidates for McCarthyʼs successor on October 10, and on the 11th they will hold a vote.

• From October 1, a shutdown could occur in the United States — a partial suspension of the governmentʼs work, if the House of Representatives and the Senate did not approve budget issues in time. On this day, the temporary budget was agreed for 45 days, but it did not include additional aid to Ukraine. There is a debate in Congress due to political differences — right-wing Republicans are opposed to supporting Ukraine, and part of the party is hesitant. Therefore, Congress must find a compromise on the fiscal year 2024 budget. Legislators should discuss a separate bill on $24 billion in military aid to Kyiv.
• The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine explained that the situation with the temporary US budget will not stop the aid to Ukraine, which was announced earlier. Funds for aid to Ukraine are in the previous budget. Now it is almost $1.6 billion for defense needs and $1.23 billion in direct budget support, as well as funds for humanitarian and energy projects.
• The WSJ, citing sources, writes that the Pentagon has another $5.2 billion in funds for providing military aid to Ukraine. This amount is equivalent to the cost of weapons that the Biden administration sent to Ukraine in the last six months. The publication adds that the $5.2 billion "was found" after officials discovered an accounting error in May, "which essentially gave the US Department of Defense more money for Ukraine than it anticipated." The error occurred due to a discrepancy in the Pentagonʼs assessment of the supplied weapons. The Pentagon also has about $1.6 billion, which it uses to replenish its own stockpile of weapons.