Moscow has turned Abkhazia and South Ossetia into military bases dependent on Russian money. Despite this, the locals do not want to return to Georgia. How the unrecognized “republics” live now

Immediately after the collapse of the USSR, Abkhazia and South Ossetia began an armed struggle against the authorities in Tbilisi. All this ended with the fact that, through the mediation of Russia, they agreed on a truce and were de facto independent. In 2008, after Russiaʼs invasion of Georgia, these regions received Moscowʼs recognition of "independence" and began to actually turn into Russian military bases. Currently, the "independence" of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in addition to Russia, is recognized by Nicaragua, Venezuela, Nauru and Syria. The economy of the "republics" is supported only by large-scale financial subsidies from Moscow. At the same time, there are no permanent proteges of Moscow in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Elections are held there, presidents change, there are large protests, but all this does not affect dependence on the Russian Federation. And they are not even talking about returning to the control of Georgia in these regions. Babel analyzed how the occupied territories of Georgia live now and what may await them in the near future.

After the collapse of the USSR and the wars of the early 1990s, Georgia effectively lost control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. For a long time, armed clashes sometimes broke out there, but in general, all sides observed a truce. Mikheil Saakashvili, who became president of Georgia in 2004, took a much tougher stance on these regions and promised to return them to Georgian control.

2008 was a turning point. Then a referendum was held in Georgia, at which the majority voted in favor of joining NATO. In response, Putin began to threaten more "substantive support" for Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The situation in these regions became more and more tense, Georgian drones began to fly over them, and in August artillery shelling began in South Ossetia from both sides.

On August 7, Saakashvili offered South Ossetia to cease fire, and in exchange for greater autonomy and amnesty for the participants in the hostilities. However, on the night of August 7-8, the shelling did not stop, and Georgia announced the start of a military offensive on Tskhinvali to "restore constitutional order." Overnight, Georgian troops liberated most of the uncontrolled territories and took positions in the capital of South Ossetia, Tskhinvali. In response, on August 8, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced the start of an operation to "enforce peace" and Russian troops went on the offensive.

Aviation began bombing Georgian cities. The Black Sea Fleet approached from the sea and blocked and destroyed the Georgian warships. Within days, the Russians captured the town of Gori on the way to Tbilisi, as well as the towns of Zugdidi, Poti, and Senaki near Abkhazia. Taking advantage of the beginning of the war in South Ossetia, Russian-backed troops from Abkhazia seized the territory of the Kodor gorge. Panic began in the capital of Georgia due to the Russian offensive, and on August 12, Saakashvili agreed to sign the peace plan of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev and Nicolas Sarkozy, the President of France, which at that time presided over the EU. The hostilities stopped, Russia withdrew its troops from the territory of Georgia. After that, the Russian Federation officially recognized the "independence" of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

A few years later, a special EU commission decided that Georgia was the party that first started the war. This is how Moscow avoided punishment and Western sanctions, but in 2021 Georgians were able to get the ECHR to recognize that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are controlled by Russia, and not independent states.

How Abkhazia lives now

Despite full control by Moscow, political life in Abkhazia is quite active. A new candidate wins every "election" there, and various protests or even revolutions are a common phenomenon. The recognition of "independence" was met by the then head of Abkhazia, Sergei Bagapshna, who also won the "elections" in 2009, but died a few years later. He was replaced in 2011 by Vice President Aleksandr Ankvab. And he immediately got into a scandal due to an interview with a former Georgian general who claimed that Ankvab worked for Georgian intelligence.

Ankvab did not manage to serve until the end of his term due to the 2014 revolution. On May 27, the opposition accused him of corruption, misuse of Russian funds, and authoritarianism. And also — in a too liberal attitude towards Georgians, because Ankvab allowed them to receive Abkhazian passports and participate in voting. Eventually, the mob stormed the presidentʼs residence and forced him to flee. A few days later, Ankvab announced his resignation.

Those protests were led by Raul Khajimba, who won the elections of the same year. He almost immediately transferred the entire Abkhazian army under the control of Moscow and worked on unifying legislation with the Russian Federation. In 2019, Khajimba was allegedly re-elected for a second term, but within a few months he also received large protests and an assault on his residence. And he resigned. One of the leaders of those protests was Akhra Avidzba, the commander of the international brigade "Pyatnashka", which participated in the war in Donbas on the side of Russia.

Aslan Bzhania, a regular participant in protests, became the next president. He also managed to survive mass protests — in 2021, Abkhazians protested due to coronavirus restrictions and the confiscation of a private hydroelectric power plant from the leader of the opposition.

Abkhazians regularly protest not only against the authorities, but also against the decisions that Russia needs. For example, against handing over state dachas in the Pitsunda resort to Russia, which the Abkhaz parliament voted for in 2023. Until then, Russia only rented them. In the summer of 2024, a new political crisis began in Abkhazia — because of the law on apartments. It provides for the construction of real estate for Russians in the Black Sea resorts. Residents of Abkhazia are afraid that in this way the Russians will buy up and develop the coast of the region.

However, Russia continues to dictate its terms to any politicians who come to power in Abkhazia. All because more than 50% of the Abkhazian budget consists of payments from Russia. The Russian Federation actively issues Russian passports to local residents and tries to break social ties with Georgia as much as possible. The natural "border" between Abkhazia and Georgia is the mountains and the Inguri River, the bridges over which the Russians dismantled almost immediately after the 2008 war.

The basis of the regionʼs economy, in addition to Russian money, is tourism. Almost the entire territory of Abkhazia is mountains and the Black Sea coast, which attracts tourists from Russia. In addition, access to the sea allows Abkhazia to actively trade with the same Russia, as well as earn money from smuggling. The region mainly exports fruits and vegetables, as well as coal. Russia is also interested in the sea shelf of Abkhazia, where there are oil deposits.

In the military sphere, Abkhazia is completely dependent on Russia. Russian military bases are located on the territory of the region, the Abkhazian army is under Russian control, and Russians are also standing on the "border" with Georgia. Russia is also completing the construction of a military port in the Abkhaz city of Ochamchire. After the Ukrainian attacks on Crimea, the Russians partially relocated their Black Sea Fleet to the port of Novorossiysk, but it is unable to receive all the ships. For this, the Russians need a new naval base, which the port in Abkhazia can become.

In 2010, the American University of Boulder conducted a public opinion poll in Abkhazia, in which about 70% of respondents supported the independence of the region. Up to 30% wanted to join Russia, and only a few percent wanted to return to Georgian control. Moreover, in 2022, "President" Bzhaniya stated that Abkhazia would like to join the Union State of Russia and Belarus.

How South Ossetia lives now

Political life in South Ossetia is as active as in Abkhazia — constant changes of power and protests. Russia does not have much control over political life in these two regions, but maintains significant influence through military and financial subsidies.

During the 2008 war, the leader of South Ossetia was Eduard Kokoity. According to Russian media, he personally led Ossetian units in the war against Georgia, but the opposition accused him of fleeing from Tskhinvali. Immediately after the recognition of "independence", Kokoity began an active struggle with other politicians and quarreled with many influential people in the region. In 2011, he lost the "elections", but the local court declared the results invalid. This caused large-scale protests, which were called the "snow revolution". In the end, both Kokoity and the opposition candidate Alla Jioyeva refused to run for office and agreed on new elections. They were won by Leonid Tibilov, who later decided to hold a referendum on changing the name of the region to South Ossetia-Alania — by analogy with the Russian region of North Ossetia-Alania. Later, he also wanted a referendum on joining the Russian Federation, but after the "presidential election." Moscow supported Anatoly Bibilov, who was ready to postpone the referendum — thatʼs why he won.

In 2020-2021, Bibilov was able to stay in power, despite several large-scale protests and crises — first due to the police killing of a father of many children, and then due to disputes with the opposition about the budget law.

After the start of a full-scale war in Ukraine, Bibilov took an active pro-Russian position. He personally traveled to the occupied territories of Ukraine and sent Ossetian volunteers to the war. Bibilov also announced plans to hold a referendum on joining the Russian Federation, but in May 2022 he lost the election to Alan Gagloev, who immediately suspended the referendum decree.

The economy of South Ossetia depends on Russian money even more than Abkhazia — by more than 80%. The region is surrounded on three sides by the territory of Georgia, and it is separated from Russia by mountains through which there is only one road. For local residents, socio-economic ties with Georgia are critically important, therefore, from the summer of 2022, South Ossetia began to gradually open checkpoints.

Almost all trade of South Ossetia now takes place with Russia, mainly the region imports Russian goods. Only a small amount of agricultural products is exported.

On the territory of South Ossetia, the Russians built a military base and deployed regular troops and units of the FSB. In particular, on the administrative border with Georgia. In addition, the Russians are engaged in the so-called bordering all the time after the end of the war. Their military and border guards are gradually moving fences and border signs deep into Georgia — tens and hundreds of meters.

In contrast to Abkhazia, where the locals are mostly in favor of independence, South Ossetia is more interested in joining Russia. But the best explanation of Russiaʼs attitude to Abkhazia and South Ossetia is the situation that happened in the spring of this year. One of the Tbilisi institutions recorded a conversation between one of the leaders of the Georgian Dream party Gia Volskyi and Russian businessman David Hidasheli, in which they discussed a possible confederation of Georgia and Abkhazia. And Georgian Prime Minister Iraklii Kobakhidze later said that the main goal of his party is the entry of a unified Georgia into the EU in 2030 "together with Abkhazian and Ossetian brothers and sisters."

In Abkhazia itself, as well as in South Ossetia, any possible agreements with Tbilisi are categorically rejected. In Russia, however, they traditionally refrain, and experts say that Moscow may be interested in the current ruling party winning the autumn elections, because it is much more favorable to Russia than the opposition. Thus, Abkhazia and South Ossetia can become a way to increase the rating of the Georgian authorities. Whatever Moscowʼs decision is, Abkhazia and South Ossetia will be forced to implement it, even if they disagree.

Translated from Ukrainian by Anton Semyzhenko.

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