The Economist: Putin decided to escalate the war in Ukraine because he believes that “he will be hanged” if Russia does not seize the entire Donetsk region

Putin appears to be preparing to escalate the war against Ukraine because he sees no way out of the conflict without a demonstration of "victory" and fears for his life.

This is reported by The Economist, citing sources close to the Kremlin.

According to their data, during the summer, Putin pondered for several weeks what to do next with the war in Ukraine, and eventually decided to escalate.

One of the factors could have been the visit to Moscow by the US CIA head John Ratcliffe on August 25. According to foreign media sources, Ratcliffe could have either warned the Kremlin about the inadmissibility of attacks on NATO countries, or persuaded Putin to negotiate peace, pointing to the worsening situation in Russia.

However, the Russian leader, according to media reports, sees escalation as a way to avoid a situation that Russia calls a stalemate. His main problem is not only the military setbacks, but also the fact that the war has been going on for almost five years and is putting increasing pressure on Russian society and elites.

“There is a growing feeling that the tsar is naked,” said one of the Russian elite. And 57% of Russian citizens call the situation “tense”.

Putin presumably believes that ending the war without achieving even the minimum goal of capturing all of Ukraine’s Donbas would physically endanger him. According to another source, Putin told his entourage at one point, “I’ll be hanged”. The publication does not specify when exactly this phrase was uttered or in what context.

Among the possible escalation scenarios, The Economist mentions increased strikes on Ukraine and the mobilization of another 300-400 000 of its troops to put pressure on the authorities of the Russian regions.

Outside Ukraine, Western intelligence agencies believe that Moscow is considering increasing hybrid warfare and sabotage against Ukraineʼs allies, attacks on logistics routes from Europe, and possible strikes on European companies that produce weapons for Ukraine. At the same time, Western intelligence agencies believe that Putin is not currently seeking a direct military clash between Russia and NATO.

However, as The Economist notes, a new escalation is unlikely to solve Russiaʼs problems. On the contrary, it could increase losses, economic pressure, and public discontent, as well as increase instability both inside and outside Russia.

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