Poll: Trump leads Harris in early voting in “swing” states

Former US President Donald Trump has a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris thanks to early voting in “swing” states.

This is evidenced by the results of the Harvard Center for American Political Studies (Harvard CAPS/Harris).

According to the poll, 48% of voters who said they would vote early in critical "swing" states chose Trump, while 47% sided with Harris. Another 5% of respondents said they were undecided or had not yet voted.

Among all voters in key "swing" states, Trump is up 2 points with 48% support to Harrisʼ 46%.

However, among early voters across the country, Harris leads Trump by 8 points — 51% to Trumpʼs 43%. Overall, 45% of voters said they would vote early, compared to 50% who plan to vote on Election Day.

In addition, polls have shown the White House contenders to be nearly evenly matched in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania and elsewhere, while hitting swing states with rallies and campaign stops.

Nationally, a composite of polls compiled by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ show the vice president ahead of her GOP challenger by 3 points, with roughly 50% support to Trumpʼs 47%. A new poll from Harvardʼs CAPS/Harris Center shows the gap even closer, with Harris trailing the former president by just one point among registered voters.

The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, conducted October 11-13, polled 3,145 registered voters. The margin of error for the total sample was plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

Elections in the USA

This yearʼs presidential election in the USA will be held on November 5, 2024. Donald Trump became the Republican candidate in mid-July and presented his vice presidential candidate JD Vance. Vance consistently opposes aid to Ukraine and says that Kyiv will have to cede some territories for a ceasefire.

Incumbent Joe Biden was supposed to be the Democratic nominee, but after an unsuccessful debate with Trump in June, he came under fire and pressure from the leaders and donors of the US Democratic Party. So on July 21, Biden officially announced that he was withdrawing from the presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate.

On August 21, Harris became the official candidate of the Democratic Party. Her vice-presidential candidate is Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, known for his support of Ukraine and sharp criticism of Trump and Vance.

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