Bloomberg: Ukraineʼs allies lack money for aid in 2025 — arms supplies at risk

Military aid to Ukraine next year is in jeopardy as some allies face financial difficulties and other countries refuse to increase aid to Kyiv.

Bloomberg writes about this with reference to its own sources.

A significant part of Ukraineʼs military support in 2025 is related to the G7 ("Big Seven") agreement to provide loans in the amount of $50 billion at the expense of frozen Russian assets. However, the allies are still discussing the final details of this agreement, with the US demanding guarantees that Hungary will not block European sanctions against Russian assets. As a result, the final amount of loans may turn out to be less — €35 billion.

The $50 billion in aid that the G7 is going to allocate is roughly equivalent to the amount that the US and key European allies allocated in the period from January 2023 to June 2024. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the United States provided almost $31.5 billion, and Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy contributed approximately $15.7 billion.

However, in some cases Ukraineʼs allies do not release data on the aid they provide to Kyiv, so the real numbers may exceed $50 billion.

However, even $50 billion is not enough for Ukraine for another year of war. According to Bloomberg sources, allies will have to go beyond that funding.

These problems are compounded by a lack of funding. Next year, Ukraine forecasts a state budget deficit of $35 billion (19% of GDP). Almost $20 billion of the deficit will be covered at the expense of the Ukraine Facility international program and assistance from the International Monetary Fund. But the rest — $15 billion — is still outstanding, so it may need G7 loans.

One of the reasons Kyivʼs funding is in question is the fiscal constraints faced by Ukraineʼs allies.

The German government is bound by constitutional debt restrictions — direct financing of Kyiv has already been cut. And in France, there is a new government formed after stormy elections, and the EU is putting pressure on Paris, demanding to reduce the budget deficit.

Negotiations in Brussels on a new EU budget, as well as any talk of joint borrowing to increase defense spending by hundreds of billions of euros, will most likely have to be postponed until after the German elections. Bloomberg notes that aid from Great Britain has also declined — Prime Minister Keir Starmer previously spoke about the need to save.

Ukraine is trying hard to convince its Western allies to fulfill their promises, since the coming winter will be the third since the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation. Meanwhile, Moscowʼs military machine is ahead of Kyiv in its ability to purchase much-needed ammunition, missiles, and other military equipment.