Two African countries broke up diplomatic relations with Ukraine. Is it a painful loss? (No, but there are finer points)

Over the past week, two West African countries severed diplomatic relations with Ukraine: Mali on August 4, and Niger on August 6. Another country that is part of the confederation with Mali and Niger — Burkina Faso — made a tough statement about Ukraine, and one of the strong players in West Africa — Senegal — summoned the Ukrainian ambassador to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to express its protest as well. All of them accuse Ukraine of supporting terrorism, and the trigger was the comment of the representative of GUR Andriy Yusov regarding the killing of the "Wagnerians" by Tuaregs in Mali. All these countries were once French colonies. And three of them — Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso — have come under Russian influence in recent years. Babel correspondent Oksana Kovalenko found out why Ukraine lost diplomatic relations with two African countries at a time when Ukraine is spending a lot of effort to build such relations. For example, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba was in South-West Africa these days.

What happened

On August 4, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Mali informed about the break in diplomatic relations with Ukraine. They explained this by the fact that the representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (known as GUR) Andriy Yusov "recognized the involvement of Ukraine in the barbaric and insidious attack of armed terrorist groups, which led to the death of elements of the defense and security forces of Mali." They also accused the ambassador of Ukraine to Senegal Yurii Pyvovarov, who allegedly approves the actions of terrorists in his post. In a statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Mali accused Ukraine of violating international law and the sovereignty of this state. And then the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Mali added a phrase not too typical for a diplomatic agency: "The transitional government of the republic fully approves of the diagnosis of the Ukrainian government made by Russia, which for many years warned the world about the neo-Nazi and villainous nature."

Nigerʼs foreign ministry, in a statement issued a few days later, cited the same reasons, mentioning both Yusov and Pyvovarov, but focused only on Ukraine allegedly helping terrorists.

Two more West African countries — Senegal and Burkina Faso — also reacted. Senegal summoned Ambassador Pyvovarov, and Burkina Faso issued a statement that "strongly condemns the act of supporting terrorism."

What did Yusov actually say?

The reason for the statements were the words of the GUR spokesman Andriy Yusov in a short comment on the air of the nationwide marathon on July 29, 2024.

His full quotation: “[The killing of the ʼWagneriansʼ in Mali will have consequences for Russia, because] the ʼWagneriansʼ have launched active activities in the African direction, and have tried to solve geopolitical issues as mercenaries. But the world sees that Russiaʼs capabilities are far from the same. And this means that both new orders and reliance on them as a tool for solving problems in the region will be less. And the fact that the rebels received the necessary information that allowed them to conduct a successful operation against Russian war criminals was seen by the whole world, we will not talk about the details... there will be a continuation."

What exactly Yusov had in mind is not completely clear.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry states that both Mali and Niger made hasty conclusions and did not try to understand the situation. In a comment to the Financial Times (FT), Yusov stated that he did not make any statements about Ukraineʼs involvement in the attack. Babelʼs sources in the authority structures confirm that Ukraine is really not involved in this.

Why did Mali and Niger really react the way they did?

Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Senegal are former French colonies. As in most post-colonial African countries, after independence, which they received in the early 1960s, the political situation in them was unstable: there were several military coups, for example in Mali there were six of them. However, the country maintained close ties with France. But a military coup took place in Mali in May 2021, in Burkina Faso in September 2021, and in Niger in July 2023. After the coups, the new military leaders broke military cooperation with France — its military contingents were forced to leave the country. Instead, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso openly requested military assistance from Russia, within the scope of which the "Wagnerians" also arrived. Some analysts claim that in Burkina Faso, the "Wagnerians" helped at the stage of preparing the coup, and now they are personally protecting the head of Burkina Faso Ibrahim Traore.

"These three countries and the Central African Republic (CAR) are a Russian bloc. Their reaction is an instruction from Moscow. In fact, the Russians show that they not only support these "Wagnerian" regimes, but also can control them. In addition, they are trying to act against Ukraineʼs active activities in Africa, which it has been conducting recently," explains the anonymous interlocutor of Babel in diplomatic circles, who analyzes the "African topic." According to him, it is interesting that Burkina Faso did not break off relations.

"Probably, they can withstand the pressure for now," says the interlocutor.

Is the loss of diplomatic relations with Mali and Niger painful for Ukraine?

Not anymore, but there is a nuance. Before the last military coup, Niger was friendly to Ukraine. Unlike Burkina Faso and Mali, before the coup, Niger supported all UN resolutions on Ukraine. And after Volodymyr Zelenskyʼs telephone conversation with Nigerʼs President Mohamed Bazum in August 2022, Niger supported the Crimean Platform. But after the coup, ties with Ukraine were cut off. Trade was rather sluggish and held at a level of up to one million dollars a year.

Relations with Mali were also sluggish. Mali has been studying the Ukrainian project on military-technical cooperation since 2012, but has not made any decisions about it. Trade amounted to about one million dollars a year.

Which African countries play an important role for Ukraine

If we proceed from the support of the resolutions regarding Ukraine in the UN General Assembly, then every country is important, because the principle of "one country — one vote" applies there.

Almost three-quarters of Ukrainian exports to the mainland are accounted for by the five Arab countries of North Africa – Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria and Libya, and in 2020 it amounted to $3.5 billion. In West Africa, the main trading partners of Ukraine are Senegal, Ghana and Nigeria. In the south — Kenya and Ethiopia.

Since 2021, relations with the Republic of South Africa, which is called the gateway to Africa, have intensified, because this country has a great influence on its neighbors and on the entire continent in general. It is also the third largest among African countries in terms of GDP. Ukraineʼs trade with South Africa in 2021 reached $117.3 million.

Politically, South Africa does not express strong support for Ukraine. This can be partly explained by the fact that South Africa is a member of the BRICS international organization, in which Russia plays a major role. The Republic of South Africa did not support any UN resolution on Ukraine. In June 2023, its president Cyril Ramaphosa led a delegation of African leaders who tried to propose their peace plan to resolve the conflict. However, the plan failed.

Politically, Ukraine is most supported by Algeria, Egypt, Cote dʼIvoire, in which Ukraine opened an embassy in April this year, Nigeria, Ghana, and Sierra Leone. To the west are Kenya and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where Ukraine also opened an embassy in April this year. Mauritania is also quite a friendly country for Ukraine, an embassy was recently opened here as well. Mauritania also receives grain within the Grain from Ukraine program.

Malawi, Zambia and Mauritius, where the visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba is ending, are also friendly countries for Ukraine.