The NATO summit will be held in Washington tomorrow. The alliance is preparing for the Donald Trumpʼs coming to power — and a protracted war. Key facts about the current mood of the summit members

On July 9, the jubilee, 75th NATO summit will begin in Washington. The summit will be historic, because it will take place at a very difficult time in the history of NATO — during a war on our continent and an election campaign on another. Ukraine urges the summit participants to "strong decisions". More than 60 American analysts demand that NATO not invite Ukraine to the Alliance, so as not to provoke a confrontation between the USA and Russia. The summit will be the last one for Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg — he will be replaced by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte on October 1. Babel journalists read the analytical note of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and numerous foreign media publications about the summit. Here we tell what Ukraine should expect from the anniversary meeting in Washington.

First, Ukraine will not be invited to NATO at the summit. In an interview with Bloomberg, President Zelenskyy directly stated that he does not expect to receive Ukraineʼs invitation to the Alliance. However, he expects "strong steps from the USA".

"We would like an invitation, we know we wonʼt get it. Although, I believe that if we want to see a strong America, then something like an invitation is just such a sign that no one is afraid of Putin and everyone is confident in Americaʼs leadership," Zelenskyy said.

It isnʼt yet known what wording regarding Ukraineʼs membership in NATO will be used by the allies at the summit. They doubt whether Ukraineʼs path to NATO should be described as "irreversible." According to CNN, Hungary could oppose such wording. Despite this, aid to Ukraine will be at the top of the summitʼs agenda, Secretary General Stoltenberg said.

The Allies will create a mission in Germany that will coordinate aid to Ukraine, a "bridge to NATO." It will officially be called "NATO Security and Training Assistance to Ukraine" (NSATU). This mission, in parallel with the Rammstein format, will coordinate aid for Ukraine. Currently, most aid is coordinated by the US, but this function should be transferred to a NATO mission. The mission will also supervise the training of Ukrainian military personnel abroad, and will also coordinate cooperation between Ukraine and its partners within the framework of security agreements.

“This winter and spring, we have seen serious delays in the delivery of support, which has had consequences on the front line. We cannot allow this to happen again. That is why I expect that at the summit, the Alliance leaders will agree that NATO will lead the coordination and delivery of assistance," Jens Stoltenberg explained the meaning of the mission.

As a result, aid to Ukraine should become more stable, predictable and coordinated. In particular, there should be fewer problems with logistics or duplication of aid that Ukraine receives. As an example of duplication, the NYT cites plans to supply Ukraine with not only F-16 aircraft, but also French Mirage 2000.

Also, at the summit, Ukraine will be offered "concrete steps" to speed up its move to NATO, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Douglas Jones said. In particular, this concerns the reforms necessary for joining the Alliance. Together, everything will make Ukraine ready at the "appropriate political moment" to quickly integrate into NATO, as Finland and Sweden did, explained the head of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer.

The summit will create "safeguards" against Donald Trump. The aid coordination mission will work under the auspices of NATO, not the United States. Therefore, its work will not be hindered by the possible Donald Trumpʼs coming to power in the USA. The alliance will also send a high-ranking civilian official to Kyiv to coordinate the aid. This should secure the prospect of Ukraineʼs membership in the Alliance, WSJ writes.

"Instead of Washington being responsible for training and assistance, that will be managed by NATO. So even if the US cuts or ends support, it will not be canceled," explained former US ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder. In addition, if aid to Ukraine is coordinated by NATO as an institution, it will become less vulnerable to political changes in the EU, writes the WSJ.

The summit in Washington can also bring more practical help to Ukraine, in particular, long-term help. According to the results of the summit, the members of the Alliance have approved the military aid of 40 billion euros, which NATO will provide to Ukraine in 2025. Allies must also agree to provide specific amounts of aid each year. It can reach 40 billion euros.

The list of countries investing in the security of Ukraine should also increase at the summit, Zelenskyy said in an interview with Bloomberg. Currently, Ukraine has already concluded about 20 security agreements with partners, including the ones with the USA, the EU, Great Britain and Japan.

NATO partners from the Indo-Pacific region — Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea — will also be present at the summit in Washington. Probably, at the summit, together with NATO, they can agree on further support for Ukraine, CSIS writes.

For example, in June South Korea planned to consider sending weapons to Ukraine. The country may go for it if Russia supplies North Korea with high-precision weapons, the Office of the President of South Korea added. Also, partners can strengthen defense-industrial cooperation, exchange experience in countering Russian and Chinese cyberattacks, as well as economic pressure on Beijing.

Ukraine itself expects more weapons from the summit. First of all, more Patriot air defense systems, President Zelenskyy said.

Translated from Ukrainian by Anton Semyzhenko.

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