Bloomberg: If 2.8 million refugee women do not return to Ukraine, it will cost 10% of pre-war GDP

If at least 2.8 million women who left because of the war do not return to Ukraine, it will cost the country 10% of the annual pre-war gross domestic product. Thatʼs $20 billion a year in the worst-case scenario.

This is reported by Bloomberg.

"That’s $20 billion a year in a worst-case scenario that would easily outweigh the European Union’s proposed four-year aid package for Ukraine, worth an annual €12.5 billion," the publication said.

The countryʼs government has ambitious post-war recovery plans to double the size of the economy by 2032, but the Economy Ministry says Ukraine lacks the 4.5 million workers and entrepreneurs needed to achieve that goal. The plan aims to fill the gap by combining returning refugees (60% of whom have degrees) and foreign talent.

To that end, the government is working on incentives to get women back into the workforce, including a new labor law, efforts to close the gender pay gap, and grants to help military spouses start businesses.

Collectively, Ukrainian refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) make up almost a third of the 37.3 million population that lived in Ukraine before the war. Bloomberg estimates that a similar outcome for Ukraine, where half of all refugees return, would cost the economy $10 billion a year. This is 5% of GDP, taking into account that some men and families will move in with women who choose to stay abroad.