The National Bank improved the GDP growth forecast in 2023 to 2%

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved GDP growth forecasts in 2023. They believe that the economy will grow by 2% by the end of the year.

This is stated in the NBU report.

Previously, the National Bank predicted GDP growth in 2023 by only 0.3%.

They also believe that the economy will grow by 4.3% in 2024, and by 6.4% in 2025.

"The basic scenario, in particular, is based on assumptions about Ukraineʼs consistent compliance with the obligations of the new cooperation program with the IMF, the implementation of a coordinated monetary and fiscal policy, the gradual leveling of quasi-fiscal imbalances, in particular in the energy sector. Also, the base scenario foresees a significant reduction of security risks from the beginning of 2024, which will contribute to the full unblocking of sea ports, a reduction of the premium for sovereign risk and the return of forced migrants to Ukraine," the report emphasizes.

The key risk to this forecast remains a longer duration and intensity of the war, which could slow economic recovery and worsen inflation and exchange rate expectations.

• The International Monetary Fund has updated its forecast for the development of Ukraineʼs economy for the period from 2023 to 2027. They say that despite the war, the Ukrainian authorities managed to maintain overall macroeconomic and financial stability thanks to rational policies and significant external support. In 2022, Ukraineʼs GDP decreased by 30.3%, and for 2023, it is predicted to fall by 3% to increase by 1%. In the following years, according to forecasts, the economy will grow: in 2024 — by 3.2%, in 2025 — by 6.5%, in 2026 — by 5% and in 2027 — by 4%.