News

How to counteract Shahed-136 and dissuade Belarus from participating in a ground operation. Worldʼs leading media about the war in Ukraine on October 20

Author:
Sasha Sverdlova
Date:

In recent days, several publications have written about the features of Iranʼs Shahed-136 drones and the dangers they pose, as well as their weaknesses. The Economist also published an extensive article on this topic. At the new stage of the war in Ukraine, which began with massive attacks on civilian infrastructure on October 10, the Russians want to demoralize the population and sow terror, the article says. Although these actions have not yet brought Russia any particular gains, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue their counteroffensive in the south and east, Iranian drones still pose a threat. Shahed-136, nicknamed "mopeds" and "farts" because of their characteristic sound, are assembled from parts available on the market, and in fact it is a flying bomb, the publication writes. The features of the drone are that it is small and cheap ― so such drones can be used in large batches from several directions, thus countering air defense. The small Shahed-136 warhead weighs about 50 kilograms and is not capable of destroying a power plant, so the Russians target substations, which ultimately damages power grids. To effectively disrupt drones, it is necessary to improve the integration of existing radars with missiles, according to former NATO commander Philip Breedlove. The Stinger mobile anti-aircraft missile system will easily shoot down the Shahed-136, but it requires better guidance than the gunnerʼs eyes. Although such integration is a difficult task, writes The Economist, Ukraine will obviously become a testing ground for such a task.

In an essay for National Review, military expert Seth Cropsey writes about the actions the West can take to keep Belarus and Lukashenko out of the war in Ukraine. The threat of greater involvement of Belarus in the war in Ukraine is growing, and although Lukashenkoʼs armed forces are quite weak, their active participation in the war will contribute to the escalation and the threat of a direct conflict between NATO and the Russian Federation, Cropsey believes. Lukashenko already supports Putin by allowing the Russian army to use his territories and warehouses. He understands that further integration with the Russian Federation will necessarily mean the complete absorption of Belarus, and despite Minskʼs attempts to balance between Russia and the West, Putin is succeeding in drawing Belarus deeper and deeper into his orbit. The US and NATO should take seriously the threat of involving the Belarusian army in the war and act in advance. Cropsey suggests two elements to this strategy. First, the West should give Belarus a clear diplomatic warning of NATOʼs military response in the event of its direct intervention in the war. Secondly, Belarus should be offered the possibility of "retreat" ― to refuse Putinʼs support and in return receive protection from the West, Cropsey reasoned.

The New York Times writes about the prospects of the Russian-Ukrainian war. U.S. intelligence sources say the Ukrainian army has every chance of making gains in the south and east over the next six weeks. Separate units of the Russian forces may collapse under Ukrainian pressure, which will allow Ukraine to regain control over Kherson and cities in the Donbas, the publication writes. In general, the hostilities are likely to continue for at least a few more months, although American and Ukrainian officials do not give more precise forecasts. Important factors that will affect the course of events are the weather conditions in winter, Putinʼs readiness to escalate and testing the unity of the West with high prices and sub-zero temperatures. Among the advantages that Ukraine currently has, Mason Clark from the Institute for the Study of War calls the ability to choose targets for attacks, because the initiative is now on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The risk may be excessive stretching of the supply routes of Ukrainian forces. Some American officials consider route 66 in Luhansk region, which Russia uses to supply the occupiers, as a promising target. Despite numerous problems in the army of the Russian Federation, it also has strengths: additional mobilized forces and the ability to absorb combat losses among personnel and equipment. Ukraine is unlikely to be able to completely defeat Russian troops in the near future, Clark believes ― although the dynamics of the war may change in the spring. However, even if Russia fails to achieve its goals, this will not mean that Putin is ready to accept defeat.