Intelligence: Russia is preparing to mobilize 600 000 people in 2026-2027

The Russian authorities plan to conduct an additional wave of mobilization in 2026–2027: they expect to recruit 300 000 people this year and another 300 000 next year.

This is evidenced by data from the Main Intelligence Directorate (known as GUR) of the Ministry of Defense and the Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS) of Ukraine.

First of all, Russia wants to replenish the units fighting against Ukraine with new mobilized people, as well as new units that are currently being formed. To this end, the Russian authorities are already changing legislation, strengthening control over military registration, and preparing new methods of recruiting people.

In particular, they plan to more actively recruit prisoners into the army. They want to admit to military service those convicted of serious crimes — smuggling weapons, drugs, explosives and radioactive substances, banditry, participation in criminal groups, and organizing illegal migration.

The Russian leadership also agreed to involve certain categories of women serving sentences in prisons and camps in mobilization and contract service.

The training of the mobilized may last 15-60 days. It will probably be conducted at training grounds in Belarus.

Ukrainian intelligence notes that the additional mobilization is a reaction of the Russian political leadership to the loss of initiative in the war, the constant increase in losses at the front, and a noticeable slowdown in the recruitment of contract soldiers in the regions of the Russian Federation.

According to GUR and FIS, Russiaʼs personnel losses for January-July 2026 amounted to almost 240 thousand people, of which at least 140 000 were irretrievable. While 232 000 people were recruited into the army under contract.

Putin will likely make the final decision on mobilization after the so-called State Duma elections, which are scheduled for September 18-20 of this year.

• On August 11, President Volodymyr Zelensky, after GUR report, stated that the Kremlin plans to conduct a rapid additional mobilization of several hundred thousand Russians this fall, after the so-called parliamentary elections and the same number of others next year.
• But Russia rejected these plans — in particular, Russiaʼs permanent representative to the UN Vasyl Nebenzia stated that the Kremlin is not currently planning a mass mobilization because it is supposedly "not necessary".

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