The Telegraph: Russia plans armed provocation in Poland to test NATOʼs resolve and try to blame Ukraine

The United States has warned Poland that Russia is planning an armed provocation on its territory to test NATOʼs resolve. In particular, the Russians could attack Polish critical infrastructure with missiles or cross the border into the territory of one of the Alliance countries.

This is reported by The Telegraph, citing sources in intelligence, NATO, and government circles.

The goal of the Russian provocation, which could begin in a few months, is to force Western allies to suspend aid to Ukraine. At the same time, Polish security services do not rule out a so-called traditional attack: a small number of Russian soldiers could pass through NATOʼs eastern flank.

Polish security forces are also considering other possible provocations: a drone attack on critical infrastructure or a simulated airstrike that would force Poland to activate its air defense systems.

According to intelligence sources, the “most extreme scenario” is a hybrid attack in the border region. The same source believes that the Russians, together with Belarusian soldiers, could enter Polish territory and then claim a GPS failure or a rescue mission, for example, of a helicopter.

Russia expects that in any of these cases Poland will not open fire, and with the participation of the United States will hold talks with them and Belarus. As a result of these talks, the Russians expect a scenario in which they will withdraw their troops from Poland in exchange for certain demands. Putinʼs main demand may be to stop military aid to Ukraine.

A Baltic security source confirmed to The Telegraph that Moscow could blame Ukraine for its provocations. Any ground attack by Russia could also be launched from Kaliningrad. European security sources believe that a provocation against Poland would be a better option for Moscow than one against one of the Baltic states. However, it would not be like a “classic” war, as Russia is not yet ready for it.

• In late June, NATO received intelligence that Russia was preparing provocations against the Baltic states and Poland. Western sources assessed that the risk of provocations had increased after Ukrainian strikes on targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

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