The Gurdian: Russia may be preparing provocations against the Baltic states or Poland due to Ukraineʼs intensified strikes

Russia may be preparing military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland because Ukraine has increased the number of long-range strikes on Russia. NATO has received intelligence on this.

This is reported by The Guardian, citing Western sources.

This is not an invasion, but missile or drone strikes on Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, or Poland. The purpose of the provocations is to put pressure on Ukraineʼs allies, as well as to test how NATO will respond to the threat to the countries on its eastern flank.

Western sources say the risk of provocations has increased after Ukrainian strikes on targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The Kremlin may try to expand the war to force the West to reduce its support for Ukraine.

Keir Giles, an expert at the British think tank Chatham House, said that Moscow will look for any way to turn the tide of the war in its favor. According to him, Russia should not be expected to "passively lose".

• Russian drones have repeatedly flown into other countries. For example, on the night of September 10, 2025, Poland first shot down several Russian drones that flew in during an attack on Ukraine. At that time, airports in Poland were closed, and the authorities called the incident an “act of aggression”.

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