FT: Baltic states fear possible ceasefire in Ukraine — it would increase the threat from Russia

The Baltic states are concerned that a possible ceasefire in Ukraine would sharply increase the threat to their security, as it would give Moscow time to rearm and move troops to their borders.

This is reported by the Financial Times.

The defense ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania believe that Moscow will not stop in Ukraine after the Trump administration negotiates a ceasefire. They note that the Kremlin has already publicly announced plans to increase military production and deploy additional troops along their borders.

"We all understand that when the war in Ukraine ends, Russia will very quickly distribute its forces. This means that the threat level will increase rapidly and significantly," said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur.

Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Šakalenė agrees with Pevkur: "We should not have any illusions. Letʼs not fool ourselves that Russia will stop at Ukraine. After the ceasefire, Russia will use the time to accelerate the buildup of military capabilities. They already have a huge army with combat experience, and it will only grow."

According to Pevkurʼs estimate, of the 600 000 Russian soldiers currently in Ukraine, 300 000 will likely be redeployed.

“These people will not return to the regions of Russia to pick corn or do anything else, because the salary they receive in the army is about five to ten times higher than what they could receive in their hometown,” notes the Estonian Minister of Defense.

The Baltic states are particularly concerned about the large Russian-Belarusian military exercises "West", which are held every four years. They will take place this fall.

The Baltic defense ministers emphasize that the redeployment of any NATO troops from their countries — in particular to enforce the ceasefire in Ukraine — would jeopardize their own security, and warn against this, objecting to such plans by the allies.

• The US is negotiating with Russia and Ukraine to end the war, but a true ceasefire is still in sight. Kyiv has already agreed to halt hostilities in the Black Sea and not attack Russian energy facilities during a 30-day truce. Moscow, in return, has only promised not to attack energy facilities and said it would implement agreements on the Black Sea only after Western sanctions are lifted.
• Even a temporary pause in hostilities would allow Russia to implement its plans as early as 2022 — to increase the army to 1.5 million soldiers and create a new army corps in the north, which would effectively double the number of troops near the borders of Finland and the Baltic states.

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