The US troops leave Iraq. Iran calls it a victory, Iraqi security forces fear strengthening of the Islamic State

The US forces are due to leave their last bases in Iraq by tomorrow. Iran and its allies see the withdrawal as a victory, as they now have significant influence in a country where 4 500 Americans have died in more than two decades of war.

Reuters writes about this.

Iraqi security experts say the troop withdrawal, agreed to in 2024 under President Joe Biden, could give Tehran and its allies more freedom to operate. At the same time, it could allow other US enemies, including the Islamic State, to reassert their positions.

Analysts predict that pro-Iranian groups will not only present the Americansʼ exit as a victory for their movement, but will also "attempt to use this momentum to increase their influence over security and policy decision-making".

Iran, which says its ultimate goal is to achieve the withdrawal of American troops from the entire Middle East, sees the US withdrawal from Iraq as a victory for its "axis of resistance" — a network of allied armed groups in the region.

Some Iraqi security officials, both in the federal government and in the semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region, say the US withdrawal could also give new life to Islamic State militants. Despite the defeat of their self-proclaimed caliphate nearly a decade ago, they maintain a network of clandestine cells.

What preceded

American forces invaded Iraq in 2003 to topple Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein. They then occupied the country, installed a Shiite-led government and fought an insurgency for years before withdrawing in late 2011.

Less than three years later, they returned to help Iraqi forces defeat the Sunni group Islamic State during a massive war from 2014 to 2017.

In recent years, Iraq has been the only country to maintain close political and military ties with both the United States and Iran. Iran has sometimes used Iraqi territory as an arena for proxy confrontation.

In 2020, the US killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in a strike on Baghdad airport. Iranʼs allies have repeatedly fired on US bases, sometimes provoking retaliatory strikes.

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