Poll: 52% of Ukrainians categorically oppose handing over the Donetsk region to Russia in exchange for security guarantees

52% of Ukrainians are categorically against the transfer of the Donetsk region to Russia in exchange for security guarantees, 40% are ready to agree to such a condition, and 7% could not decide.

This is evidenced by the survey data of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).

In particular, 59% of Kyiv residents are against the transfer of Donetsk region, and 31% are ready to agree. In the west of Ukraine, 57% are against, and 38% are for. In the center and north (excluding Kyiv), 49% are against, and 42% are ready to make such a decision. In the south, 49% are against, and 44% are for. In the east, 50% are against, and 39% are ready to agree.

Prospects for the end of the war

Only 20% of Ukrainians expect the war to end in the coming weeks or in the first half of 2026. 18% predict an end in the second half of 2026, 43% in 2027 or later, and 19% are undecided. Compared to the fall of 2025, optimism about a quick end to the war has decreased: then 33% of respondents hoped for this, in December 2025 — 26%.

Willingness to endure war

Despite the difficult situation, 65% of Ukrainians are ready to endure the war as long as necessary. Only 17% hope that the war will end sooner. 5% of respondents said that they are not ready to endure the war for a long time because of problems with light and heat.

Among the reasons why some are not ready to tolerate war, 29% cited the threat to the life and health of loved ones, 17% cited shelling and destruction, 17% cited economic problems, 15% cited problems with electricity and heating, and 10% cited psychological difficulties.

Russiaʼs energy strikes and resettlement

88% of Ukrainians believe that Russia is attacking energy infrastructure to leave people without electricity and heat and force them to surrender. Only 3% believe that the strikes are "a response to Ukraine for its attacks on Russia", and another 3% think that Russia is only attacking military facilities.

Due to problems with electricity and heating, 9% of Ukrainians moved to another home or settlement, of which 66% moved to another city or village, 31% to another home in the same settlement, and 3% went abroad. 6% of the 9% have already returned home, the rest remain in their new place. In Kyiv, 3% of those who left have not yet returned.

The task of strikes on Russia

Another indicator is that 90% of Ukrainians support strikes on Russian territory, and among them, 80% believe that strikes should cover not only military infrastructure, but also other facilities, including energy and oil and gas facilities. Compared to February 2023, the number of supporters of strikes on "not only military facilities" has increased from 52% to 80%.

Overall, Ukrainian sentiment remains stable at the end of January 2026, despite Russiaʼs large-scale energy attacks. 66% believe that Ukraine will be a prosperous country in the EU in 10 years.

• The all-Ukrainian survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) was conducted from January 23 to 29, 2026 among 1 003 respondents.

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